Record??

acaddict · Post by **acaddict** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:49 am

Tonight I tinked 6 swords in a row with magic item tink. If my calculations are correct, there is a 0.36% chance of this happening. Any stat guys out there that can confirm this?

Ian Mac · Post by **Ian Mac** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:01 am

You lucky bastard!

Post by **Panzerfaust** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:05 am

Bah! I blew up 14 or 15 in a row. Now, that's luck! Just not the good kind.

Phade · Post by **Phade** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 12:32 pm

I made 9 in a row once on Gspot

Tainted Luv · Post by **Tainted Luv** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 8:20 am

actually, seeing as im taking a statistics class right now, i'll explain how lucky you are...

there is a 33.33% chance of succeeding on one imbue, so 1/3 basically, and you attempted 6, meaning that the chance of you succeeding to imbue ALL of them, is not 33.33%, it is 33.33% (.3333)^6 or around
(.0013709192729492475999369) or ~.1% chance, someone check my math, its almost 2:30am here, but i believe that is correct, go buy a lottery ticket =)

Nakamuro Zataki · Post by **Nakamuro Zataki** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 9:00 am

Tainted Luv wrote:actually, seeing as im taking a statistics class right now, i'll explain how lucky you are...

there is a 33.33% chance of succeeding on one imbue, so 1/3 basically, and you attempted 6, meaning that the chance of you succeeding to imbue ALL of them, is not 33.33%, it is 33.33% (.3333)^6 or around
(.0013709192729492475999369) or ~.1% chance, someone check my math, its almost 2:30am here, but i believe that is correct, go buy a lottery ticket =)

I am pretty sure those events are indepentent, save the money and dont get a lottery ticket...

acaddict · Post by **acaddict** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 3:36 am

Even though they are independent events, the chance of doing the 6 independent events in a row is 0.13%. Really was expecting to get 1 out of the 6!

Tainted Luv · Post by **Tainted Luv** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 8:33 am

yea, just because they are independent events doesnt take away from the fact that you have to figure the overall percentage of succeeding 6 times, you can compare it to drawing the same hand two times in a row in a game like bridge, 13 cards, doesnt matter which order they are drawn in) and the deck is 52 cards, so you do 52 nCr 13 and get your answer =)

and people say you never use math in real life applications...HAH! i sure showed them...wait

Dax · Post by **Dax** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 6:42 am

haha, tainted!

I have a stats exam tomorrow. =(

Maybe your card lesson will somehow magically help me out. :)

Tainted Luv · Post by **Tainted Luv** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 9:40 pm

hopefully hehe, good luck on the exam